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2022-10-27
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1. Type of Demand Independent Demand The market demand of the outside world or consumers for finished products or final products, that is, the order demand of the market undertaken by the enterprise. Because its demand is determined by the market, the enterprise itself can only be predicted according to the past experience rules, but cannot be controlled or decided, so it is called independent demand. Related demand is a demand that is intrinsically related to other demands. According to this correlation, an enterprise can accurately calculate its demand and demand time. It is a deterministic demand. For example, once the user's demand for finished products of the enterprise is determined, the demand for parts and raw materials related to the product will be determined, and the demand for these parts and raw materials is the related demand. The role of independent demand of enterprises: (1) actively influencing demand; (2) simply and passively responding to market demand; classification of demand forecasting methods; 2) composition of demand; average demand for a period of time; trend demand; economy, technology, product life cycle; seasonal demand changes with the seasons; obviously cyclical demand; the influence of economic and political conditions, It's difficult to accurately predict the persistence of autocorrelation events. Quantitative demand forecasting methods caused by random deviation and accidental events: 1. Time series analysis method is used to forecast the possible demand in the future based on historical actual demand data. Including simple moving average method, weighted moving average method and exponential smoothing method. 1) The simple moving average method calculates the average value of demand in a certain interval from now to the past, and then forecasts the demand of the next period. 2) The demand of weighted moving average method will change seasonally, and the corresponding weight will be given accordingly. Give the data in the time series closer to the prediction period a greater weight. 3) Based on the weighted moving average method, the index average method introduces the prediction error, which can better predict the demand with trends and seasonal changes. 4) Regression analysis method. This method is a method of establishing the regression function between dependent variables and independent variables by using mathematical statistics on the basis of mastering a large number of observation data. This forecasting method is based on the assumption that the future trend is the continuation of the past situation. For a linear regression model, it assumes the linear relationship between demand and time. Let the demand in period X be Y, and the functional relationship is as follows